Hua Tailai (603659) in-depth report: overseas supply replenishment vertical expansion and increase profits
This report reads: LG, Samsung, a major overseas manufacturer, has gradually switched from natural graphite to artificial graphite, and Tai Tailai is already in a leading position to open up the next round of growth space. At the same time, graphitization and carbonization capacity have been released, enhancing profitability.
Investment points: Adjust profit forecast, maintain target price and increase holding level.
The short-term price pressure in 2019 has increased, but considering that the company has replaced its leading position in overseas supply chains, and converted its graphitization and carbonization capacity to gradually reach production, increasing the company’s profit elasticity, and adjusting its 2019-2021 profit forecast EPS to1.
29) yuan, maintaining target price of 78.
1 yuan, maintain overweight rating.
Each round of battery manufacturers’ choice of negative electrode supply chain is a major opportunity for the development of the industry.
In 2014-2017, the scale of ATL was changed from natural graphite to artificial graphite, and Taitai seized the opportunity to achieve a 10-fold increase in the cumulative amount in four years. From 2015 to 2018, Kaijin Energy also seized the opportunity to interrupt the supply chain in the Ningde era, Achieved 8-fold expansion in 4 years.
At 都市夜网 present, the overseas power makers LG and Samsung are still dominated by natural graphite. The switch to artificial graphite is the next big opportunity. In this round of opportunities, Tai Tailai has replaced the leading position.
Too much capacity was added before 2019, but product differentiation is still significant, prices are under pressure, and the potential for large-scale price reduction is ok.
As the demand for artificial graphite continues to increase, supplementary production capacity has also increased, leading to an increasing market size and downward pressure on prices. However, there are many short-term product models with significant differentiation. The company has newly developed overseas supply chains, with extended certification cycles and price pressure.Smaller.
The industrial chain has been initially extended and the value has increased significantly.
At present, one ton of graphitization can make a profit of 6000-7000 yuan, one ton of carbonization can achieve a profit of 2,000-3,000 yuan, and the profitability of graphitization + carbonization can basically reach the profit of a continuous product.
The company’s graphitization capacity in 2019-2021 is 2, 5, and 10 short-term, and the carbonization capacity is 2, 5, and 8 routes, which can greatly increase the company’s profitability.
Risk Warning: The gross margin of the negative electrode is reduced, and the release of graphitization and carbonization is less than expected.